Hotcoin Research | September 15–19, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $4.11 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.91% of the total, or $2.34 trillion. Stablecoins have a combined market capitalization of $290.7 billion, up 1.47% over the past seven days, marking their first weekly decline in nearly three months. USDT accounts for 58.9% of the total.

Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap, most posted gains, while a few recorded losses. ASTER rose 558.56% over the past seven days, IMX gained 61.74%, M gained 31.85%, AVNT surged 285.91%, and DRIFT climbed 52.16%.

This week, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $886.7 million, while net inflows into US Ethereum spot ETFs reached $557.2 million.

Market Forecast (September 22–26)

• RSI: 47.89, indicating a neutral reading
• Fear and Greed Index: 49, remaining neutral
• Altcoin Season Index: 86 (higher than last week), signaling FOMO territory

BTC Core Range: $113,400–120,000
ETH Core Range: $4,438–4,956
SOL Core Range: $217–260

Short-Term Traders Should:

• Focus on Key Price Levels: Monitor support and resistance closely.
• A break below support (BTC $113,400, ETH $4,438, SOL $217) could trigger a short-term correction.
• A break above resistance (BTC $117,000, SOL $250) with strong volume could open further upside potential.
• Manage Risk: Always set stop-losses. Overbought conditions following a rate cut may lead to sharp corrections, creating high short-term volatility. Avoid blindly chasing gains or panic selling.

Long-Term Investors Should:

• Buy in Dips and Batches: If the market pulls back to key support levels (BTC around $115,000, ETH between $4,060–4,438, and SOL around $217), consider accumulating high-quality assets gradually.
• Be Patient: Long-term investing is not dependent on short-term moves. Ignore market noise and stick to a steady holding or accumulation strategy.

Understanding the Present

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. SEC Approves a Multi-Currency Crypto ETF
   The SEC approved the first US ETF covering multiple major cryptocurrencies — including Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA. More importantly, the review period for ETF listings was shortened from 240 days to 75 days. This faster approval process means cryptocurrency ETFs could launch more quickly, with similar products expected to follow. The decision provides traditional financial markets with a more convenient entry into crypto — a long-term bullish signal for the industry.
2. Forward Industries Invests Heavily in Solana
   Nasdaq-listed Forward Industries announced plans to raise $4 billion in a secondary offering, primarily to expand its Solana (SOL) holdings. This is not its first large-scale SOL purchase; the company previously acquired $1.58 billion worth. The move highlights growing confidence among traditional listed companies in specific crypto assets and may help attract more institutional attention to Solana.
3. Coinbase User Data Breach Disclosure
   Coinbase disclosed that the sensitive information of 69,461 users — including names, addresses, IDs, and bank account details — was exposed. The breach was not due to a direct compromise of Coinbase systems but rather the result of hackers bribing outsourced customer service staff in India.
4. Native Markets Secures USDH Ticker on Hyperliquid
   On September 15, Native Markets won the Hyperliquid stablecoin USDH bidding and was officially granted the USDH ticker for use on the platform.
5. PayPal Expands PYUSD Stablecoin to Aptos
   On September 19, PayPal expanded its USD-backed stablecoin PYUSD to the Aptos public blockchain, further broadening its multi-chain presence.

Macroeconomics

• September 18 — According to CME’s FedWatch data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October was 87.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 12.3%.
• September 18 — The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. On the same day, the Federal Reserve cut its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points.
• September 18 — The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the range down to 4.00%–4.25%, in line with market expectations. This move resumed the pace of rate cuts that had been paused since December last year.
• September 17 — The Bank of Canada announced a 25 basis point cut in its overnight interest rate target to 2.50%, matching market expectations.
• September 18 — US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 came in at 231,000, below expectations of 240,000. The previous week’s figure was revised up slightly from 263,000 to 264,000.

ETFs

Between September 15–19, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $886.7 million in net inflows. As of September 19, GBTC (Grayscale) had accumulated total outflows of $24.034 billion, with current holdings of $20.421 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) held $88.093 billion. Overall, the total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $152.49 billion.

Meanwhile, US Ethereum spot ETFs saw $557.2 million in net inflows over the same period.

Foreseeing the Future

Events

1. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will be held in South Korea from September 22–28.
2. ETHGlobal New Delhi will take place in New Delhi, India from September 26–28, 2025.
3. TON Dev Bootcamp will be hosted in Macau on September 27 (1:00–6:00 PM). This Web3 kickoff event will cover TG mini-program development and TON smart contracts, featuring lectures from the official TON team and insights from professors at the Macau University of Science and Technology.
4. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore from October 1–2, 2025.

Project Progress

1. OSL Group will be added to the FTSE Asia Pacific Small Cap Index, effective September 22.
2. Coinbase will launch index futures trading on September 22, covering Nvidia and the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF. The index will combine leading tech stocks with BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, plus a balanced portfolio including Coinbase, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. Each of the ten constituents will carry a 10% equal weight.
3. Falcon Finance, a stablecoin project under DWF Labs, will hold a community public sale of FF tokens on BuildPad from September 22–23, targeting $4 million in fundraising.
4. Huma Finance will launch the second part of its Q1 airdrop at 9:00 PM on September 26, with applications open until 9:00 PM on October 26.

Important Events

1. September 25 (8:30 PM): The US will release initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20.
2. September 26 (8:30 PM): The US will release the annualized core PCE price index for August.

Token Unlocks

1. Venom (VENOM): Unlocking 59.27 million tokens on September 25, valued at approximately $8.95 million, representing 2.28% of the circulating supply.
2. Jupiter (JUP): Unlocking 53.47 million tokens on September 28, valued at approximately $28.22 million, representing 1.75% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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