Hotcoin Research | November 3–7, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $3.46 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59% at $2.04 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $305.4 billion, down 0.63% over the past 7 days. Notably, stablecoin supply has declined for two consecutive weeks, with USDT representing 60.08% of the total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most saw declines, while a few recorded significant gains. Specifically:

• ICP surged 199.52% in 7 days
• FIL rose 122.46%
• DASH increased 59.5%
• AR jumped 132.2%
• ZK climbed 100.94%

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.207 billion, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $5.08 billion.

Market Forecast (November 10–14, 2025)

• RSI: 59.64 (neutral)
• Fear & Greed Index: 21 (down from last week, in the fear range)
• Altcoin Season Index: 39 (lower than last week)

BTC Core Range: $100,000–$107,000

ETH Core Range: $3,100–$3,800

SOL Core Range: $152–$186

Market Sentiment

The crypto market is currently divided between optimism and caution. On one hand, Trump has declared his ambition to “make America a Bitcoin superpower” and noted that “companies like Tether are accumulating at the bottom.”

On the other hand, ETF outflows, shrinking stablecoin supply, whale selling, and attacks on major DeFi projects suggest a shift between old and new holders. These combined pressures have triggered extreme fear in the market. However, sentiment indicators may be overly pessimistic, hinting that a short-term rebound could occur at any time.

Institutional Focus

Watch for whether Bitcoin ETF inflows resume and if the Solana ETF can sustain its strong momentum (with a single-day inflow of $29 million last week) — both are key indicators of institutional confidence.

For conservative investors: Stay patient; in uncertain conditions, holding sufficient cash remains the best strategy.

For aggressive traders: Track breakout trends closely, watch key price levels, buy low and sell high within the range, and set timely stop-losses.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week’s Major Events

1. Nov 2: According to fees.pump.fun data, Pump.fun spent 7,453.81 SOL (≈$1.395 million) repurchasing 303.9 million PUMP tokens. Since buybacks began on July 15, about $160.8 million worth of PUMP has been repurchased, reducing circulating supply by 10.04%.
2. Nov 3: Lookonchain reported $116.6 million stolen from Balancer, a major DeFi protocol.
3. Nov 3: CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that while KOSPI hit record highs, South Korean crypto exchange volumes reached yearly lows.
4. Nov 3: The Berachain Foundation announced a temporary network suspension to execute an emergency hard fork addressing vulnerabilities in Balancer V2 on BEX.
5. Nov 4: Following a near-record federal government shutdown, US Congress signaled potential progress toward an “exit plan” to resolve the impasse.
6. Nov 5: Canada unveiled its stablecoin regulatory framework, mirroring US policies. Issuers must maintain full reserves and sound risk controls. The Bank of Canada will allocate C$10 million over two years (FY 2026–2027) to oversee operations, with ongoing costs covered by regulated issuers.
7. Nov 6: Speaking at the American Business Forum in Miami, Trump reiterated his goal to make the US a “Bitcoin superpower.”
8. Nov 7: According to DefiLlama, Ethena’s USDe stablecoin market cap dropped to $8.95 billion, down 45% from its peak (~$16 billion). USDe briefly depegged to $0.65 on Oct 11 during the market crash.
9. Nov 7: According to HTX data, BTC fell below $100,000, down 2.8% in 24 hours.

Macroeconomic Updates

1. Nov 5: US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, below expectations of 28,000.
2. Nov 6: The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, pausing its quarterly rate-cut cycle since August 2024.
3. Nov 7: The Federal Reserve rate monitor indicated a 62.3% probability of a 25 bps cut in December.

ETF Overview

Between Nov 3–7, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1.207 billion in net outflows.

• GBTC (Grayscale): Total outflows of $24.702 billion, current holdings $17.746 billion
• IBIT (BlackRock): Current holdings $82.587 billion
• Total BTC ETF market cap: $139.642 billion
• US Ethereum spot ETFs: Net outflows of $50.8 million

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Events

1. Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025 — Amsterdam, Netherlands｜Nov 13–14
2. Devconnect — Buenos Aires, Argentina｜Nov 17–22
3. A major Ethereum ecosystem event bringing together builders, educators, and researchers through workshops, technical lectures, and community seminars.
4. Bitcoin MENA 2025 — Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre｜Dec 8–9
5. Solana Breakpoint 2025 — Abu Dhabi｜Dec 11–13

Project Milestones

1. Square (Jack Dorsey’s company) will launch Bitcoin payments on Nov 10.
2. Starknet v0.14.1 upgrade to launch on testnet (Nov 11) and mainnet (Nov 25).

Key Economic Releases

1. China: October CPI YoY — Nov 9
2. US: October CPI YoY — Nov 13 (TBC)
3. US: Initial jobless claims (week ending Nov 8) — Nov 13 (TBC)

Token Unlocks

1. Linea (LINEA): 2.8 billion tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 10｜Value: ≈$33.48 million｜Share: 16.44% of circulating supply｜Ecosystem and community incentives
2. Aptos (APT): 11.31 million tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 11｜Value: ≈$35.17 million｜Share: 0.69% of circulating supply｜Monthly unlock for foundation and contributors
3. io.net (IO): 12.18 million tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 11｜Value: ≈$3.85 million｜Share: 5.55% of circulating supply｜Investor and ecosystem distribution
4. Solayer (LAYER): 27.02 million tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 11｜Value: ≈$5.7 million｜Share: 9.51% of circulating supply｜Validator and developer rewards
5. Avalanche (AVAX): 1.67 million tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 13｜Value: ≈$28.19 million｜Share: 0.33% of circulating supply｜Scheduled foundation and team release
6. WalletConnect Token (WCT): 124 million tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 15｜Value: ≈$14.03 million｜Share: 65.21% of circulating supply｜Large unlock for early contributors
7. Starknet (STRK): 126 million tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 15｜Value: ≈$14.32 million｜Share: 5.34% of circulating supply｜Team and ecosystem unlock
8. Arbitrum (ARB): 92.65 million tokens unlocked｜Date: Nov 16｜Value: ≈$25.79 million｜Share: 1.94% of circulating supply｜Team and advisor allocation

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics, and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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