Hotcoin Research | November 10–14, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.26 trillion, with BTC representing 58.7% at $1.91 trillion. Stablecoins have a combined market capitalization of $304.2 billion, down 0.41% over the past 7 days. Notably, stablecoin supply has declined for three consecutive weeks, with USDT accounting for 60.44% of the total.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined, while a few recorded gains. Notable weekly performers include: STRK +72.26%, DRC +65.91%, ZEC +26.84%, B +26.63%, and MET +19.58%.

This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1.111 billion in net outflows, while U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw $7.29 billion in net outflows.

Market Forecast (November 17–21)

The RSI currently stands at 43.52 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 9 (down from last week, indicating extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 39 (also down from last week).

BTC Core Range: $97,000–$110,000

ETH Core Range: $3,000–$4,000

SOL Core Range: $140–$175

Market Sentiment

Over the past year, there have been only 11 days classified as “extreme fear.” Historically, these periods have often been excellent accumulation opportunities — the classic principle of “buy in fear, sell in greed” has repeatedly proven effective.

We are now approaching the end of the traditional 4-year crypto cycle. On-chain data shows that BTC remains in a mildly bearish phase, with a dense supply zone between $106,000 and $118,000, where many holders are likely to sell near their cost basis. This creates strong resistance.

• $100,000 remains a key psychological support
• $97,000 is the lower boundary of the current trading range

Macro Outlook

The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has fallen below 50%. Markets will closely watch economic data releases once the U.S. government reopens.

Strategic Recommendations

For conservative investors:

• Accumulate gradually during market pullbacks
• Maintain sufficient cash reserves
• Avoid going all-in at any price level

For aggressive traders:

• Trade within the current well-defined range
• Consider small long positions near support
• Reduce exposure or take short positions near resistance
• Always set stop-loss orders

Understanding the Present

Review of This Week’s Major Events

1. November 10: U.S. media reported that the Senate reached an agreement on the 9th to end the federal government shutdown.
2. November 11: Fed Governor Milan stated that with a softening labor market and easing inflation, the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December, adding that a 25 bp cut is the “minimum” appropriate move.
3. November 10: Coinbase officially announced that the Monad token public sale will begin on November 17.
4. November 12: Upexi, a Solana-based digital asset reserve and consumer brand company, reported record-breaking quarterly results, with over $6 million in digital asset revenue driving gross profit to $8.3 million, a 183% year-over-year increase.
5. November 12: Coinbase and stablecoin infrastructure startup BVNK terminated their $2 billion acquisition agreement. Had it proceeded, it would have been one of the largest M&A deals in crypto history, significantly expanding Coinbase’s institutional-grade stablecoin business.
6. November 12: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins outlined the agency’s new “token taxonomy” framework, aimed at clarifying which cryptocurrencies qualify as securities, marking a new approach to digital asset regulation.
7. November 14: The cryptocurrency market faced sharp declines.

• BTC dropped to $98,000, currently at $100,294
• ETH fell below $3,200, now at $3,252
• Total crypto market cap fell 2.0% in 24 hours to $3.45 trillion

8. U.S. equities also closed lower:

• Nasdaq: -2.3%
• Dow Jones: -1.6%
• S&P 500: -1.6%

9. Crypto-related stocks declined across the board.

10. November 14: Elon Musk announced that X has launched new communication features, including encrypted messaging, audio/video calls, and file transfer, adding that X Money is “coming soon.”

11. November 14: According to Coinglass, total liquidations reached $748 million in the past 24 hours:

• $596 million in long positions
• $152 million in short positions

Macroeconomic News

1. November 14: Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened market expectations for a December rate cut. Combined with an uncertain data calendar and rising concerns about a potential AI-driven market bubble, global equities and precious metals experienced significant declines on Friday.
2. November 15: According to the Fed Rate Watch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stood at 39.8%.

ETFs

According to market data, between November 10 and November 14, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $1.111 billion in net outflows. As of November 14, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $24.638 billion and currently holds $16.091 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $75.162 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs now stands at $126.787 billion.

U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $72,900 in net outflows over the same period.

Foresee the Future

Event Preview

1. Devconnect will take place from November 17 to 22, 2025, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This major technical conference will gather leading contributors from across the Ethereum ecosystem. Throughout the week, Ethereum builders, educators, and protocol teams will collaborate through hands-on workshops, deep-dive technical sessions, and community-driven seminars to advance innovation in blockchain technology.
2. Bitcoin MENA will take place from December 8 to 9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).
3. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will take place from December 11–13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. Berachain will launch a claims page for Balancer v2/BEX vulnerability victims before November 16 and will perform a fork to unlock the BEX contract at the virtual machine level
2. ALT5 Sigma, the WLFI financial strategy firm, will release its new financial report on November 18
3. The Capx AI airdrop claim window will close at 7:59 AM on November 20

Important Events

1. At 8:30 AM on November 18, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting
2. At 9:30 PM on November 20, the United States will release initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15
3. At 3:00 AM on November 20, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting
4. At 11:00 PM on November 21, the University of Michigan will publish the final reading of its November Consumer Confidence Index

Token Unlocks

1. Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens on November 18, worth approximately 3.74 million USD, representing 5.04% of its circulating supply
2. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 26.72 million tokens on November 20, worth approximately 38.05 million USD, representing 7.29% of its circulating supply
3. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 8.35 million tokens on November 20, worth approximately 6.46 million USD, representing 2.97% of its circulating supply
4. SOON (SOON) will unlock 15.21 million tokens on November 23, worth approximately 29.51 million USD, representing 4.33% of its circulating supply

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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