Hotcoin Research | November 17–21, 2025

Crypto Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at approximately $2.89 trillion, with BTC making up 58.3% at $1.68 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $302.8 billion, down 0.68% over the past 7 days. Notably, stablecoin supply has contracted for four consecutive weeks, with USDT representing 60.93% of the market.

Among the top 200 assets on CoinMarketCap, the majority declined while only a few recorded gains. In particular, CC dropped 32.32% over 7 days, IP fell 29.88%, ICP declined 29.03%, BTC was down 13.15%, and ETH fell 14.13%. It has been one of the most severe weeks in the market recently.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.211 billion, while US Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $500 million.

Market Forecast (November 24–28)

Currently, the RSI is at 34.42 (weak zone), the Fear & Greed Index reads 15 (extreme fear, but higher than last week), and the Altcoin Index is 43 (neutral, higher than last week).

• BTC Core Range: $85,000–$89,000
• ETH Core Range: $2,800–$3,100
• SOL Core Range: $128–$156

Market Sentiment

The market remains extremely fragile and is undergoing a slow, uncontrolled decline. Any slightly negative development can trigger outsized market reactions, potentially amplifying the downside. This shows investors are actively de-risking amid uncertainty surrounding the four-year cycle narrative and US macroeconomic stability, prioritizing capital preservation.

This week’s downturn was mainly driven by:

• stronger-than-expected US employment data
• a sharp decline in expectations for a December rate cut
• selling pressure from BlackRock
• ongoing AI sector enthusiasm, diverting liquidity away from crypto

In the short term, a mild continuation of this downtrend remains likely. BTC is now approaching the shutdown threshold for some miners; Strategy’s estimated breakeven sits at $74,080. Whether the market stabilizes — and whether a “Christmas rally” can form — will largely depend on US macro data after markets reopen, a potential December rate cut, and renewed institutional inflows.

Strategy

For conservative investors:

Valuations have improved for long-term allocation. Consider accumulating gradually near support levels to reduce the average entry price. This is likely not the market bottom, so avoid rushing into a large position.

For aggressive traders:

Within the current well-defined range, consider small long positions near support, and reduce exposure or consider shorts near resistance. Always apply stop-loss protection.

Looking at the Present

A Review of the Week’s Major Events

1. On November 18, the mNAV (market-cap-to-BTC holdings ratio) of all major crypto treasury (DAT) companies fell below 1. Specifically:

• Strategy (MSTR): mNAV at 0.937. Its market cap has declined to $56 billion, while it holds 649,870 BTC, valued at $59.9 billion.
• Metaplanet: mNAV at 0.912. Its market cap has fallen to $2.61 billion, holding 30,823 BTC worth $2.84 billion.
• Bitmine (BMNR): now the largest institutional holder of Ethereum, with ~3.51 million ETH valued at ~$10.63 billion. Its market cap has fallen to $8.81 billion, with an mNAV of 0.83.
• SharpLink (SBET): the second-largest institutional holder of ETH, holding 860,000 ETH valued at ~$2.61 billion. Its market cap stands at $2.02 billion, and its mNAV is 0.84.

2. On November 18, the open-source AI platform Sentient opened airdrop eligibility registration.
Registration closes on November 29. Details on the second-quarter airdrop will be announced soon.

3. On November 19, a U.S. Department of Labor spokesperson stated the Department plans to complete its missing weekly initial jobless claims data caused by the government shutdown by the end of Thursday (local time).

4. On November 20, Nvidia (NVDA.O) announced its Q3 FY2026 earnings:

• Q3 revenue: $57 billion, up from $35.082 billion YoY, and above the $54.923 billion consensus
• Q4 revenue guidance: $65 billion, vs. market expectations of $61.6 billion

5. The rapid growth in AI chip sales and the stronger-than-expected revenue outlook reinforced investor confidence that the AI boom will continue.
CEO Jensen Huang stated: “I don’t see an AI bubble.”

Following the earnings report:

• Bitcoin rose to $91,500
• Ethereum rose to $3,000
• Nvidia shares gained over 5% in after-hours trading
• Nasdaq futures opened 1% higher on Thursday

6. On November 20, the Monad (MON) token sale on Coinbase raised $147.1 million, reaching 78.4% of its target.

The public sale allocates 7.5% of total MON supply at 0.025 USDC, implying a $2.5 billion FDV. The sale closes on Sunday, November 23 at 10:00 AM.

According to Polymarket:

• 84% probability the sale reaches $300 million
• 56% probability of reaching $400 million
• 27% probability of reaching $600 million

Macroeconomic News

1. On November 20, US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 came in at 220,000, below expectations of 230,000.
2. On November 20, the US unemployment rate for September was reported at 4.4%, above expectations of 4.30% and compared with the previous reading of 4.30%.
3. On November 20, US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for September were 119,000, well above expectations of 50,000. The previous figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000.
4. On November 21, according to the Fed Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December stood at 28.5%.

ETFs

According to statistics, from November 17 to November 21, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.217 billion. As of November 21:

• GBTC (Grayscale) has seen a total historical outflow of $24.987 billion, and currently holds $14.105 billion
• IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $66.239 billion

The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs now stands at $112.02 billion.

Meanwhile, US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $500 million over the same period.

Future Ahead

Event Announcements

1. Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8–9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).
2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will take place from December 11–13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. Makinafi’s token (MAK) will conduct its ICO on Legion on November 25.
2. Meme Launchpad Bitdealernet’s token (BIT) will hold its TGE on November 27.
3. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated at the Jackson Hole SALT conference in Wyoming that the final draft of the crypto market structure legislation is expected to be submitted to U.S. President Trump before Thanksgiving (November 27).

Important Events

1. The EU will prohibit trading in the Russia-linked stablecoin A7A5 beginning November 25.
2. At 21:30 on November 26, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending November 22.
3. At 23:00 on November 26, the U.S. will release the year-on-year Core PCE Price Index for October.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, the core research and investment arm of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to turning professional crypto analysis into actionable strategies. Our three-pillar framework — trend analysis, value discovery, and real-time tracking — combines deep research, multi-angle project evaluation, and continuous market monitoring.

Through our Weekly Insights and In-depth Research Reports, we break down market dynamics and spotlight emerging opportunities. With Hotcoin Selects — our exclusive dual-screening process powered by both AI and human expertise — we help identify high-potential assets while minimizing trial-and-error costs.

We also engage with the community through weekly livestreams, decoding market hot topics, and forecasting key trends. Our goal is to empower investors of all levels to navigate cycles with confidence and capture long-term value in Web3.

Risk Disclaimer

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all investments carry inherent risks. We strongly encourage investors to stay informed, assess risks thoroughly, and follow strict risk management practices to protect their assets.

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